Going by the assessments and calculations of senior party leaders in the state, the party could perform well in at least 40 to 45 Lok Sabha seats. Most of these seats, a party insider said, were either from western or central UP.
The assessment of seats has been done by Shah during his meetings with several senior leaders. Shah also held a close-door meeting with Kalyan Singh during his two-day visit along with party president Rajnath Singh. Singh, during an impromptu meeting with a few journalists citing a survey had said that the BJP is expected to perform well on around two dozen seats even without Narendra Modi taking charge of the party's election campaign.
With Modi being appointed as chairman of the party's campaign committee, the party leaders are said to be bubbling with confidence of winning over 40 Lok Sabha seats. Even Rajnath's directive on Thursday to elevate the party's backward cell as backward wing and rechristen it Samajik Nyay Morcha is also being seen by party insiders as an effort to achieve the target.
With Mayawati and Mulayam Singh's concerted efforts on caste politics and factionalism plaguing the BJP, backward caste vote has gradually shifted from the BJP. Continuous dismal performance by the party also led to drifting of a certain section of upper caste votes. In the past two elections, only 10 BJP MPs have been able to win their seats out of the total 80 Lok Sabha seats in UP.
However, leaders believe that if BJP is able to present itself as an option in the state, upper caste voters could switch back loyalty to the BJP, which might not be the case with the backward caste voters. The party believes that with Kalyan Singh all set to be in the party fold and Narendra Modi likely to focus on UP, things might tilt in BJP's favour. Western and central UP have maximum such seats where polarisation could favour BJP. However, this is only possible if there is no split in minority votes between Congress and Samajwadi Party, said a senior BJP leader. While Muslims have been supporting Samajwadi Party for the past several elections especially after Babri demolition, Congress this time fancies its chances to get back minority support if Modi factor goes on to become a major issue in the state.
Even in such a condition, several leaders feel that western and central UP could play an important role for BJP in the upcoming Lok Sabha election.
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